1. Larval transport model development and implementation 2. Adult oyster filtration services model development and implementation 3. Larval transport model validation 4. Development of web-based model platforms for (1) restoration planners, (2) education and outreach

1. Incorporate hydrodynamic data from NYHOPS into a biophysical model including a particle tracking module for estimating spatial larval dispersal and settlement patterns and a systemwide eutrophication module (SWEM) for linking algal density and particulate organic matter to potential oyster filtration capacity and resulting ecosystem services from restoration activities. 2. Larval transport model validation will be based on high resolution oyster recruitment data collected in years 1 and 2. Along the Hudson River shores where oyster recruitment is observed to vary steeply with distance from a single point source, validation will be based on regression of spatial model predictions relative to observed recruit abundance. 3. The biophysical model developed for this project will be developed into two products for dissemination: (1) a computer-intensive tool for restoration planners and (2) a web-based tool for education and outreach.

Oyster restoration in the Hudson River Estuary (HRE) has grown markedly over the past decade and is likely to continue growing. Urban restoration often has multiple overlapping objectives that get weighed during planning. With respect to the goal of enhancing ecosystem services through increases in oyster biomass, there can be big differences in the realized efficacy of restoration efforts depending on the particular spatial configuration of restored subpopulations. Given hydrodynamic patterns, not all locations can support a self-sustaining oyster population while also exporting larvae to increase within-estuary population connectivity. Similarly, for a given restored filtration capacity, its nutrient cycling and water quality benefits will depend on proximity to algal production and related factors. These complex biophysical and spatial dimensions are rarely incorporated into restoration planning for lack of appropriate models, but for the HRE there are component models ready for application. This project will build on exceptional hydrodynamic and biogeochemical models that are available for the HRE by incorporating simulation of oyster larval dispersal and spatially-explicit oyster filtration services for hypothetical oyster population configurations. Model validation is an important component of this work and focuses on spatially comparing model-projected larval settlement with observed recruitment numbers, taking advantage of a single larval point source in the HRE. The information generated by this study will allow resource managers to optimize future restoration efforts by targeting specific areas that support population growth and connectivity. The filtration services model will also allow practitioners to address ‘What if’ questions about ecological outcomes for particular restoration plans or scales (e.g. 1000 acres restored vs 10,000 acres restored). Finally, this project will supply a flexible tool for restoration planners and produce a web-based education and outreach modeling tool for teaching oyster biology, estuarine biogeochemistry and restoration planning to a broad set of stakeholder groups.